To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 11 February 2000
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2000 05:19:54 -0500

From: owner-bpr@philologos.org

STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 11 February 2000

By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source of International News
& Analysis
http://www.stratfor.com/

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WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR WORLD

The World After Chechnya
http://www.stratfor.com/hotspots/caspian/worldafterchechnya/default.ht
m

Arms Request Threatens Somalia's Only Stable Regions
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m0002110102.htm

Indonesia Beefs Up Navy
http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0002110127.htm

__________________________________

STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 11 February 2000

Diplomatic Blitzkrieg: The West Responds to Russia's
Assertiveness

Summary

European Commission President Romano Prodi said Feb. 10 that
the European Union (EU) would extend absolute security
guarantees to all of its members. This statement in a single
stroke redefines Russia and the West's struggle for the
countries of Central Europe. No longer will Russia have the
luxury of viewing EU expansion as a harmless process. Prodi
essentially announced de facto NATO expansion under the guise of
EU security guarantees.

Analysis

European Commission President Romano Prodi surprised his
Latvian audience Feb. 10 by declaring that "any attack or
aggression against an EU [European Union] member nation would be
an attack or aggression against the whole EU, this is the
highest guarantee." If implemented as stated, this marks a
quantum shift in EU policies from the purely economic into the
security realm - a change that Russia cannot afford to ignore.
Now Russia will feel just as threatened by EU expansion as it
has by NATO expansion. Prodi's announcement intensified the ever-
escalating race to establish a new frontier between Russia and
the West.

At the Jan. 24-25 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
Summit, [http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/012100.ASP]
Russia compelled its fellow CIS members to participate in
tighter security measures
[http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0001260125.htm] to
combat terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism - Moscow's code
names for Chechen militants.

Until now, the West has responded to Russia's new assertiveness
with piecemeal measures. First, there was a tug-of-war for
Georgia's loyalties
[http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c0002030025.htm] over
joint Russian-Georgian border patrols. Then, the United States
directly challenged Russian interests in the Persian Gulf
[http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m0002040010.htm] by
boarding a Russian tanker that was evading U.N. sanctions.
Russia responded to these challenges by strengthening its ties
with old Soviet client states
[http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/020800.ASP] such as
Iraq, North Korea and Vietnam. Now, the West has seized the
Russian gauntlet. High-level delegations are taking off to
entice much of Central Europe to fully join the Western fold.

Russia cannot help but take this diplomatic blitz seriously.
Among the delegations are the European Commission president,
NATO's secretary-general and NATO's supreme commander. Their
target audiences include an array of states traditionally within
the Russian sphere of influence: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
border Russia; and Christian Orthodox Romania and Moldova share
religious ties. To underscore the completeness of the Western
response, NATO even dispatched a delegation Feb. 9 to Russia's
Caucasus neighbor, Georgia.

But it is Prodi's statement that will truly shock Russia. The
fact that the proclamation came from the European Commission's
president - the highest non-rotating position within the EU
superstructure - indicates that the intent to implement security
guarantees is no mere trial balloon, but new EU policy.

However, Prodi's promise of an explicit security guarantee
cannot be supported by current EU capabilities. Even if the
Eurocorps functions as Prodi envisions, it will have a scant
60,000 troops at its command. This is just barely enough to
handle a Kosovo-style operation; it would do little to deter a
large-scale attack from a hostile power. Even the defense
establishments of Europe's larger countries would be hard-
pressed to project sufficient power to Europe's eastern fringes
in times of crisis.

Only the United States could possibly provide the level of
force that Prodi envisions. Prodi's wording itself sounds
remarkably similar to NATO's Article V security guarantee: "that
an armed attack against one or more of them shall be considered
an attack against them all." This indicates that Prodi - the
steamroller of EU reform
[http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu2000/012800.asp] - is
either bluffing his way through Central Europe or has plans to
integrate NATO into the EU in order to produce a militarily
credible Europe. Prodi's assurance of security to all EU members
extends NATO guarantees to the countries that will be on the
EU's new eastern border. Suddenly, Russia's perception of the EU
becomes much less benign.

What makes the announcement more dramatic is Prodi's choice of
audiences - Latvia. Of all the former communist states, this
small Baltic country has had the most venomous relations with
its former master. Prodi's statement and the locale in which he
made it indicate Prodi's willingness - even enthusiasm - to
stare down Russia over issues of importance to Europe.

Russia may have the advantage in the race for Caspian oil
routes [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special20.htm] and
in
the contest for Central Asia
[http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special13.htm], but
Prodi has firmly set his mind on the EU fully absorbing all of
Eastern Europe - Baltics included. Now he has shown a unique
willingness to use NATO to achieve that goal. It remains to be
seen how the rest of the Union will respond to this sudden
policy shift. Prodi will have his plate full convincing the EU's
four neutral states to militarize under any common banner.
Persuading France to allow the United States an even more
prominent position in Europe will prove thorny as well.

If the EU fully adopts Prodi's plans, it would conjure a
nightmare scenario for Russia. A soft-power EU and hard-power
NATO would become formal partners in Western expansion.
Traditionally neutral countries such as Austria, Finland,
Ireland and Sweden would be co- opted into a NATO-EU military
structure. An economically powerful EU, backed by a militarily
powerful NATO, would dig in along vast lengths of Russia's
eastern border. Russia's acquiescence to EU expansion will
rapidly come to an end, and what little is left of the Russia-
West "friendship" may be completely gone.

(c) 2000, WNI, Inc.

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To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Infobeat News items
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2000 08:56:19 -0500

From: "Moza" <moza7@netzero.net>

*** Scholars to explore images of God

CORVALLIS, Ore. (AP) - It's not the easiest of topics to sum up for a
conference: the many different faces of God. Nobel Peace Prize winner
Desmond Tutu is expected to join other religious scholars in the "God
at 2000" conference scheduled for Feb. 11-12 at Oregon State
University. The participants will describe how the image of God has
changed with changes in culture, science and technology. And simply
with the passage of time. Sponsored by OSU, the Trinity Institute in
New York and the Chautauqua Institution, the conference will
represent the three major Western religions - Islam, Judaism and
Christianity. It is being held in Oregon, a state with one of the
lowest numbers for regular church attendance in the nation. See
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2564099844-832

*** 2 popes to be beatified Sept. 3

VATICAN CITY (AP) - Popes Pius IX and John XXIII will be beatified -
the last formal step before sainthood - on Sept. 3 by Pope John Paul
II. The date was reported Thursday by the Italian news agency ANSA.
It comes during the Vatican's Holy Year and was widely expected. John
XXIII, much beloved by Catholics worldwide, died in 1963. He called
the Second Vatican Council, which led to modernization of many areas
of the church, including the use of local languages instead of Latin
for Mass. Pius IX was pope from 1846-78, the longest pontificate in
history. ###

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To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Space Science News
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2000 08:58:38 -0500

From: "Moza" <moza7@netzero.net>

Space Science News for February 10, 2000

Kamikaze Comets: Ninety-two sungrazing comets discovered by the Solar
and Heliospheric Observatory appear to have come from the breakup of a
single gigantic comet more than 2000 years ago. SOHO's 100th - 102nd
comet discoveries came just this week. FULL STORY at

      http://spacescience.com/headlines/y2000/ast10feb_1.htm

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To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Nations Ponder Globalization
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2000 13:55:21 -0500

From: owner-bpr@philologos.org

Nations Ponder Globalization

By Patrick McDowell
Associated Press Writer
Friday, Feb. 11, 2000

BANGKOK, Thailand –– Spurred by a sense of crisis since the
turmoil of the World Trade Organization summit in Seattle, some
180 nations are meeting in Bangkok this week to shape the global
economy. But as leaders and ministers talk and ponder,
globalization is happening a mouse-click, a share trade and a
takeover at a time. Governments and international bodies like
the United Nations acknowledge they aren't sure how to keep up –
much less control – a phenomenon that is really led by
companies, not treaties.

Full story:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20000211/aponline040400_
000.htm

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To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Britain: Gay groups seek to legalise sex in public lavatories
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2000 14:00:25 -0500

From: owner-bpr@philologos.org

Gay groups seek to legalise sex in public lavatories
By Philip Johnston, Home Affairs Editor

CAMPAIGNERS pressing for the age of consent for homosexuals to
be reduced to 16 have set out an agenda for future reforms that
would legalise gay sex in saunas, public lavatories and
"cruising" areas.

They have made clear that yesterday's Bill to equalise the ages
of consent for homosexual and heterosexual acts is only the
start of a concerted effort to remove all legislative
restrictions upon homosexual activity and relationships. A
submission to the Home Office by the organisation OutRage, led
by Peter Tatchell, says: "We do not believe that consensual
actions between adults, no matter how bizarre they might appear
to the majority, are any concern of the law or its agents. Thus
we seek to legitimise consenting actions in bath-houses and
saunas, 'backrooms' in pubs, and all group sex in private,
including sado-masochistic games."

The submission, to a Home Office review of sex offences, adds:
"We would also like to extend the concept of private to include
public lavatory cubicles and after-dark 'cruising' areas. Since
recreational sex is a natural activity and popular pursuit, all
laws which seek to control it should be abolished . . . The
whole basis of the current homosexual control laws is moralistic
and based on a largely medieval concept of Christianity which we
believe has no place in a pluralistic democratic society."

Full story:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=001851641145319&rtmo=LbxLltLd&atmo=99
999999&pg=/et/00/2/11/ngay111.html

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