To: bprlist@egroups.com
Subject: [bprlist] Daily World Affairs Report items (12/14/00)
From: "research-bpr" <research-bpr@philologos.org>
Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 19:08:44 -0500

HOLOCAUST DENIER NOT IMPRESSED BY RULING

An Australian Holocaust revisionist said on Wednesday that he would not
remove material from his Web site despite a German court's finding that it
is illegal under German law. In a case involving Frederick Toben, a German-
born Australian citizen, the German Federal Court of Justice found on
Tuesday that German laws against denying the Holocaust apply to the
Internet even if the content originates in another country and is placed th ere
by a non-German. The ruling in effect gave German prosecutors the power
to seek the arrest of Holocaust deniers wherever they are as long as their
Internet site is accessible in Germany.

Mr. Toben, who already served time in a German prison for denying the
Holocaust, is unlikely to be prosecuted as a result of the ruling, however,
because a trial would require his extradition from Australia, which does no t
have laws against Holocaust revisionism. =93Germany is trying to rule the
world again by saying that the people who access the Internet have no
choice,=94 he told the Associated Press. (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)

NICE SEALED THE FATE OF THE AMERICAN CENTURY

This is a week that history will surely remember =97 and not only for the
travesty of an election which has resulted in the judicial appointment of t he
candidate who came second, George W. Bush. In Europe, too, there has
been an event that could prove every bit as historic =97 the travesty of a
negotiation which has resulted in the disintegration of Europe=92s pretensi ons
to unity. These 2 events may turn out to be subtly linked.

To look first at America, there are increasing signs that this election cou ld
become a pivotal point in the global economic, diplomatic and perhaps even
military balance =97 a moment in history which may one day be identified as
the end of the American century, or at least the American decade.

The presidential election revealed for all the world the dark side of the
American dream, which is usually noticed only by foreigners who live in the
US. There is America=92s misguided faith in second-rate technologies. Then
there is the senseless rigidity of a chaotic and incompetent public
administration. There is also the subornation of the judicial system by
political zealots whose sole motivation is to advance their sectional
obsessions, regardless of the dictates of justice, national interest or com mon
sense.

Whatever one may think of America=92s powerful economy, its vibrant
culture or its benign international role as the ultimate guarantor of world
peace, the world=92s admiration for America as a political model must surel y
have vanished for ever on Saturday afternoon. The moment the Supreme
Court=92s Republican majority prohibited the counting of votes that might
have gone against their favoured candidate was the moment when America
finally abdicated from its post-WW2 pretensions to be the political role-
model for a universally democratic world. If you think that statement an
ignorant calumny against the wisdom and objectivity of the Supreme Court
majority, just read Justice John Paul Stevens=92s indignant dissent.

Politics is not, of course, everything. How, then, can I possibly assert th at a
purely political event such as the US election may mark the end of
America=92s global hegemony, at least for the next decade? Even to speak of
an end of the American decade invites derision, since it obviously
oversimplifies history. But symbols and simplified models are indispensable
if we want to make sense of history, politics, economics or indeed any othe r
feature of social life.

As an economist, I find it remarkable that the '50s were a decade of
unquestionable American hegemony, the '60s saw a catching-up by Europe,
the '70s were dominated by an ultimately unsuccessful insurrection by oil
and commodity producers in the Third World, the '80s were the decade of
Japanese economic supremacy and the '90s were again an American
decade, bringing the American century to a fitting close.

If you accept for the purposes of argument this over-simplified locution, t he
evidence that America may have reached or passed its heyday is slowly but
surely mounting. There is growing recognition that the US economy=92s
superb performance since the late '80s has not been some mysterious
miracle attributable to America=92s favour in the eyes of God. The US
economic miracle is largely explained by changes in monetary policy,
technological advances, reforms in labour relations and capital market
arrangements, many of which can work just as well in nations with very
different political cultures =97 for example Sweden and The Netherlands, no t
to mention Britain.

Meanwhile, America=92s prosperity has also exposed it to risks. The
unprecedented and steadily rising US trade deficit implies that the rest of
the world is not very interested in buying American goods and services,
while America is increasingly dependent on foreign-made goods. Yet
foreigners have been desperately eager to acquire the shares and other
assets of American companies whose goods and services they don=92t seem
to want to buy.

There are only 2 ways in which this paradox can be resolved: either the US
dollar will have to fall very sharply or American consumption and
investment will have to slow sharply, at least in relation to growth rates in
Europe, Japan and the developing world. In my view the second outcome is
more likely =97 and, with luck, it will happen benignly through an
acceleration of European and Asian growth, rather than a recession in
America. Whichever happens, America=92s relative economic status is bound
to be reduced in the years ahead =97 either the dollar will fall sharply or  the
rest of the world will overtake US economic growth (quite possibly through
a combination of both events).

There is only one way for America to avoid this diminution in its relative
economic status. That is for Wall Street to attract even more foreign
investment =97 and to do so at an ever-accelerating rate. But this solution
looks less and less likely. The bursting of the Internet bubble on Wall Str eet
came just 3 months after the world had been suckered by American
consultants and computer salesmen [and so-called "prophets"!] into wasting
hundreds of billions of dollars on the most expensive confidence trick in
history, the millennium bug.

As the computer and Internet mania subsides, it will gradually become
apparent that =93technology=94 does not simply consist of computers and
software and that America does not enjoy a monopoly of all advanced
technologies and profitable business ideas. In mobile telephony, aerospace,
pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, European companies are doing
extremely well.

Moreover, there are large new fields of technology in which America is not
very competitive at all. For example, America=92s myopic singleissue politi cs,
which now rules out any serious action on energy conservation and global
warming, makes it unlikely that American companies will lead the
development of renewable energy and fuel-efficient power sources, a
technological revolution that may, in the long run, prove even more
important than computers and the Internet.

But even if America=92s economic leadership is now in danger, where else
could the world turn for economic leadership? Even a week ago, I would
have been loath to suggest this, but I now think we must seriously consider
the possibility that the sequence of the '50s and '60s will be repeated =97  and
that the American '90s will be followed by a '60s-style decade (and maybe
even longer) of catching-up and outperformance by Europe. I hope in the
coming months to discuss this proposition in detail, but for the moment let
me offer just one tantalising idea.

The Treaty of Nice, widely seen as a disaster, may trigger a new period of
optimism and prosperity in Europe. For it may mark the end of the process
of relentless integration among European countries which began with the
Treaty of Rome in 1956. A few months ago, that statement would have
been seen as a refutation of Europe=92s pretensions to global leadership. B ut
now it is clearer than ever that Europe=92s future lies in co-operative div ersity
rather than forced integration. The recognition of this, especially among t he
political and business elites in France and Germany, could have a
tremendously liberating and energising effect.

If the American election has proved anything, it is that very large countri es
are not always more successful than relatively small ones. Indeed, the
election suggests that the best way to reflect the will of American voters
might be to divide the nation into 2 separate countries =97 with different
ideologies, different attitudes to the role of government in society, diffe rent
laws on abortion, gun control, different Presidents, but perfectly function ing
common markets, a common currency and common defence, and
unbreakable ties of friendship. Perhaps, then, a diverse Europe, rather tha n
a rigidly unified America, is already turning out to be the better model fo r a
diverse, peaceful and democratic 21st-century world. (The London Times -
Opinioin)

EUROPEAN PRESS REVIEW ON NICE

* Criticism of the results of the EU summit in Nice continues to dominate
the comment pages of the German press -- representatives from across the
political spectrum have called the reform package "disappointing". The
Neue Osnabr=FCcker Zeitung comments: "French president Jacques Chirac
was one of the losers at the Nice summit. However much he tried to make
the draft treaty appear a success, subsequent criticism from the
parliamentarians cast things in their proper light. At the same time, the
criticism was a positive advertisement for the European parliament itself; it
could not have wished for better image-building. It has reacted quickly to
events, and has offered critical assessment together with its own
constructive suggestions. And that is exactly what citizens like to see fro m
their delegates."

The Frankf=FCrter Rundschau finds that the European parliament is caught in
a Catch-22. "It should really dismiss the treaty of Nice out of hand. The
document is a monument to the EU states' national narrow-mindedness and
their unwillingness to accept reform. On the other hand, the European
parliament must watch out that it is not given the blame for preventing EU
expansion. Still, it would be nice for citizens to see that some EU
representatives are prepared to stand by their convictions." (Deutsche
Welle)

* European parliamentarians on Tuesday attacked the treaty hammered out
by EU leaders in Nice for being unambitious and shaped by narrow national
interests. Many of Europe's newspapers agree with their assessment.

The French paper Le Progr=E8s says that the bad mood in the European
parliament is understandable. As self-professed defenders of European
integration, the representatives have got to criticise the Nice treaty, bec ause
it clings to national vetoes, even though the EU needs more majority voting
to avoid gridlock in its decision-making process. But the paper advises the
European parliament not to be too hasty in pointing the finger of blame, an d
hints at past financial scandals to show that parliamentarians themselves
aren't without fault.

And in Brussels, De Standaard comments on an unexpected benefit to fall
upon Europe's capital city: "Yesterday, European Commission President
Romano Prodi confirmed that, as soon as there are 18 member states, EU
summits will always take place in Brussels. That should strengthen
Brussels' role as the capital. The Belgian government should use this
unexpected decision to its advantage. Aside from money, Brussels needs
daring and vision. The European summit will motivate the city to fix its
mobility and infrastructure problems. (Deutsche Welle)

FRANCE OPENS NEW BATTLE OVER E.U. ARMY

The relationship between NATO and the EU over plans for an EU rapid
reaction force was close to collapse last night after the French were
accused of deliberately creating an =93atmosphere of distrust=94. NATO
foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels today to examine the defence
package agreed at the EU summit in Nice, under which a Euro-force could
use the alliance=92s assets and planning expertise. Last night NATO
ambassadors struggled to find a formula to please the French, who still
demanded that the EU force should be independent of NATO.

One diplomatic source described it as a =93war of attrition=94 by the Frenc h.
Other sources said that the deal between NATO and the EU could fall
apart. They said that NATO ambassadors had grown increasingly angry
and frustrated after France objected to proposed security co-ordination
arrangements between the alliance and the EU. The =93soured=94 atmosphere
inside NATO headquarters last night had the potential to embarrass Tony
Blair, who declared victory in Nice after the 15 EU states approved a 60-
page document on defence and security underlining a close =93strategic=94
relationship between NATO and the EU, despite a statement earlier from
President Chirac of France that he wanted the EU to have independent
military status.

To worsen the strain between France and her NATO allies, it emerged last
night that Hubert Vedrine, the French Foreign Minister, had decided that he
had more pressing business in the Middle East. Madeleine Albright, the US
Secretary of State, in Hungary yesterday en route for the Brussels meeting,
affirmed that any European force should not be =93outside NATO=94. A
Ministry of Defence spokesman said that the French comments did not
reflect the agreement reached at Nice. =93The force is about making sure
that Europe is better able to contribute to what NATO is able to do by
strengthening its own capability.=94 (The London Times)

MICHAEL TURNER =0F
(mykelturner@airmail.net)

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