BPR Mailing List Digest: 04/14/00

Philologos
BPR Mailing List Digest
April 14, 2000

Digest Home | 2000 | April, 2000

To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Marines on Main Street
From: bpr-list@philologos.org
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 07:36:38 -0500

FRIDAY APRIL 14 2000

ARMED AND DANGEROUS
Marines on Main Street
Warfare training, car searches scare some residents, thrill others

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_bresnahan/20000414_xex_marines_ma
in.shtml

SWANSBORO, N.C. -- "This is training for urban warfare
against the American people," said Marty Proctor, owner of
the Main Street Deli, regarding the activity that has been
taking place directly in front of his business.

Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit from Camp
Lejeune, N.C. have been engaged in urban warfare training
exercises in Mobile, Ala. and Swansboro, N.C. this past
week. Some of their critics claim the training in civilian
areas violates the law, but their supporters welcome them
with open arms.

"They're just preparing for when people get pissed off
enough to start saying 'enough's enough,'" said Proctor,
who believes the military plans to one day use force
against the American people who refuse to turn in their
guns.

But while a relatively small number of residents may fear
the Marines are training to be a domestic police force, the
Marines say they are only preparing for possible challenges
when they go to the Mediterranean area in July.

Members of the elite unit have been in Swansboro all week
training with the local police at checkpoints and
neighborhood patrols. Despite the ominous appearance of
over 100 different armed soldiers each day, residents and
elected officials have welcomed the military exercise.

"Camp Lejeune has done so much to help our local law
enforcement. This is our chance to give back," said
Swansboro Police Chief Harry Pugliese in a WorldNetDaily
report last Friday. His police officers have received
frequent training opportunities at Camp Lejeune without
charge to the city. Phone inquiries as to the nature of the
training were not returned.

The receptionist at City Hall said the only complaints she
has received have come from out-of-state readers of
WorldNetDaily. She said she has not received any complaints
from residents.

A Swansboro Area Chamber of Commerce spokeswoman said that
business owners have not complained to her office. She said
she knows Proctor, but was unaware that he is upset.
Marines in the street in front of his deli have caused a
severe drop in his regular business. Their appearance was
intimidating, he said, and kept people away.

The Marines set up a checkpoint directly in front of the
police station where they posted a sign that read,
"Military Checkpoint Ahead." The only cars that were pulled
over were those with a special sign in the window
indicating they had volunteered to be searched, according
to military spokesmen. (Must have Microsoft Word to view
this banner.)

Firearms are the objective of the search, according to one
of the Marines being trained. When a car is pulled over,
they first examine the bottom of the vehicle using special
mirrors. Then they search the interior. Special fake
weapons have been planted in some of the volunteer's cars
to see if the trainees are good enough to find them.

Volunteers were warned that local police would also be
involved in the search and that they would be subject to
all laws. It is not known if anyone has actually been
arrested for a real violation, because police officers have
declined to speak with WorldNetDaily and Pugliese has not
returned calls.

Proctor said some residents complained to him about being
frightened when the Marines at the checkpoints actually
pointed automatic weapons at them.

Several Marines were willing to remove the magazine from
their rifle and show that it was empty upon request.
Despite the fact that weapons were not loaded, many people
were not aware of that and were fearful as they saw Marines
crouched and lying behind sandbags with their machine guns
pointed at cars approaching the checkpoint. Military
vehicles were also present with automatic weapons mounted
on them.

Marines questioned by WorldNetDaily said it was part of
their job to look as intimidating as possible.

"Most people see police officers on a day to day basis and
think nothing of it. They're not intimidated, as they
should be. When we're seen, it's an intimidation thing more
than anything," said one of the Marines on the first day of
the exercise.

Asked if residents should be concerned about the military
acting as a police force, he said, "It's a new world. It's
a new world." Other Marines made similar comments.

Marine officers prevented additional direct conversations
with their trainees, and also prevented WorldNetDaily from
talking with people who had been searched.

Contrary to their statements that the Marines searched
only vehicles with the "volunteer" sign in the window, cars
without the sign were observed being searched at the
checkpoints --some with small children who appeared
frightened.

Proctor said town officials should have consulted with
residents and business owners before granting permission
for the Marines to come to town.

"I think they should have called a town meeting and sent
out letters and things to the business people who were
going to be affected by it," said Proctor. "It's really
affected our business down here."

The Marines were patrolling up and down the street in
front of Proctor's deli in large numbers. Several out-of-
towners came in to the store to ask what was going on,
attempting to decide whether to stay or leave.

A man and woman pulled up when Proctor was taking the
trash out and said they were too afraid to get out of their
car.

"They had little kids. Of course they don't want the kids
walking up and down the street with people in camouflage
gear carrying M-16 machine guns. We saw a guy today that
was carrying an M-60. One guy was there with an M-60 in the
prone position aiming it down the street," complained
Proctor.

He said other business owners and residents come in his
shop and express how upset they are, but few will speak out
in public or to the press.

"I think they won't say (they are upset). I think they're
afraid to say," said Proctor.

The Marines are not in violation of any law or of the
Posse Comitatus Act, according to Col. David Jones, Ret.
USMC, now the military advisor to North Carolina Gov. James
Hunt.

Critics point to the Posse Comitatus act, as well as U.S.
Code Sections 10, 18, and 32 as areas of law possibly being
violated by the Marines.

"I know they do these exercises all over the country. As
long as you have the permission of the local municipality,
I think that's all you need, but I don't have a legal fix
on that," said Jones.

Hunt would not respond to requests for a comment, and his
spokeswoman referred all questions to Jones. She did say
that Hunt was not advised about the Marine training
exercise in advance and was not asked for permission.

Jones said his wife served as a volunteer to go through
one of the checkpoints, adding that his wife's car was
searched with mirrors when she went through.

"These guys that are training are the same ones you see
evacuating embassies. This is the Marine Expeditionary Unit
that's constantly in the Mediterranean. To make the
training as realistic as possible, they like to put
themselves in an area where they have dogs and regular
civilian kinds of traffic. God, I'm glad they're on our
side," said Jones.

When asked about complaints that the Marines are training
to be a domestic police force, or enforce martial law in
the U.S., Jones said, "That's ridiculous. I can tell you
from my experience, there is no state that has a better
relationship with its military than the state of North
Carolina."

He agreed with Pugliese that North Carolina police receive
a great deal of free training at Camp Lejeune, and that
this was an opportunity to thank them for all they have
given to the police.

"Our governor's very aware of the importance of the
military to the economy of the state. It accounts for a
direct economic impact of $6.5 billion a year. That's just
the direct impact, not all the rollover and everything
else," Jones explained.

The same 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit was also
conducting simultaneous training in Mobile, Ala. Advance
permission was gained from the elected officials and police
department prior to the week-long Training in an Urban
Environment Exercise, TRUEX.

As part of the Alabama operation, Marines were flown in by
two helicopters and slid down ropes to the roof of an
abandoned department store. About 50 Marines participated
in the assault on the building.

Once on the roof, the Marines must then penetrate the
building and secure it floor by floor, according to Marine
spokesman Cpl. Derek A. Shoemake. He told of the Marine's
efforts to help relationships between the Marines and local
citizens.

Prior to the start of the actual exercise, about 100
Marines showed up at Hank Aaron Stadium for a minor league
baseball game. Col. Kenneth J. Glueck, Marine Expeditionary
Unit Commander threw out the first pitch and Marines
provided a color guard ceremony.

"Without the people of Mobile, we wouldn't be able to
train here," said Glueck. "They have given us tremendous
support."

Shoemake said that support came in the form of Mobile city
officials allowing the Marines to use their city for part
of TRUEX.

"I hope this inspires people," said Sgt. Sam Johnston, who
stood with the Marines on the ball field. "I have seen a
lot of guys tonight who were thinking about joining the
Marine Corps. I hope this shows them the rewards it can
offer. Plus, it's kind of fun to show off."

Just hours before the baseball game, Mobile Mayor Michael
C. Dow thanked Glueck at a press conference in City Hall
for what his unit has done. Dow also presented Glueck the
Key to the City.

"The Marines of the (26th MEU) are part of the forces who
defend our country," he said. "We should make every effort
to honor our men and women who wear that uniform."

In an earlier training exercise in February, the same unit
that has been training in Swansboro and Mobile was learning
how to use non-lethal weapons in an urban environment. The
training took place at the Stone Bay Physical Training
field at Camp Lejeune.

During the two-week course, Marines learned how to control
various types of crowds and study the backgrounds, uses and
applications of non-lethal weapons.

Some of the weapons covered in the course are foam rubber
projectiles and stinger balls, which can be loaded into an
M-209 grenade launcher. They learned to use special
beanbags and rubber cylinders fired from a shotgun. Marines
also learned how to use a police baton and pepper spray to
control crowds.

"If I'm controlling a crowd in another country, (anything
could happen)," said Lt. Cpl. William N. Bernardiz. "If
someone gets out of hand, I may need to protect myself, but
at the same time I can't cause an international incident by
using unnecessary force."

Camp Lejeune serves as "test-bed" for the Marine Corps
Warfighting Lab to develop urban warfare skills, according
to their website.

David M. Bresnahan is an investigative journalist for
WorldNetDaily.com

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========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Are you a "Black Hole"?
From: bpr-list@philologos.org
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 10:29:59 -0500

In recent years, astronomers have discovered that not all
stars shine. There are some stars of such tremendous
density that instead of radiating outwards, they only draw
light in. Therefore, they have named these stars, "Black
Holes". Fortunately, the universe has enough Black Holes
already. If you have light, shine forth.

From: "Bringing Heaven Down to Earth"
by Tzvi Freeman - tzvif@aol.com
http://members.aol.com/tzviF

See http://philologos.org/bpr for additional info.

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Couple test computer chip implants
From: bpr-list@philologos.org("Moza")
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 14:02:58 -0400

From The Scotsman,
http://www.scotsman.com/cgi-bin/t3.cgi/taf/uk.taf?function=detail&Scotsman_u
id1=TS00034856&desk=News&cat=uk&sec=0

- 14/04/00 Kevin Warwick: Human brain ‘a
limited device´ Couple test computer chip implants to get on same
wavelength

VICTORIA MASTERSON In New Orleans

A BRITISH scientist and his wife are preparing to have computer chips
surgically implanted into their bodies in an effort to read each other´s
thoughts.

Kevin Warwick, 46, professor of cybernetics at Reading University, and
Irena Warwick, 52, are to begin the experiment next year to discover
whether human emotions, sensations and untapped capabilities such as
extra- sensory perception and telepathy can be created electronically. The
study will explore whether computer technology could be used to engineer
humans or half-robot cyborgs with X-ray vision and infra-red or bat-like
ultrasonic detection skills.

Prof Warwick believes his research has huge implications for medical
science by allowing, for example, electronically simulated sensations to
be returned to amputees, the blind or paralysis victims, such as the
former Superman actor Christopher Reeve. Outlining his plans at the
Computer Associates World software industry convention in New Orleans,
Prof Warwick said: "This is all about looking outside the box of what it
means to be human.

"I see the human brain as a limited and obsolete device – with the amount
of technology that´s around, it´s a pretty limited size. A lot of
computers will have the same sort of power as human beings in ten to 20
years.

"What we are doing is really opening up the field of electronic medicine –
can you electronically cheer someone up when they´re depressed or could we
have an electronic aspirin to cure a headache?

"In terms of communication we will be looking at telegraphy, like sending
morse code signal across the internet. This opens up the possibility of
sending thought signals to each other which is very, very exciting."

The computer chip to be inserted into the Warwicks´ arms is about half the
size of a business card and consists of a transmitter, receiver, battery
and processor.

Surgeons will plug the device into a nerve, where it will read the
chemical signals being sent from the brain around the body to control
movement and reactions such as shock, anger and excitement. The
information will be fed into a computer which will translate the data into
an electronic signal and then send it back into the nervous system via the
chip.

The key to the experiment will be whether the brain accepts, rejects or
misinterprets the signals, possibly manifesting them as a nervous twitch.

Prof Warwick acknowledged the experiment is potentially risky and could
leave him mentally damaged or at least interfere with his thoughts. "The
risk could be zero or it could be 100 per cent," he said.

"I could go completely crazy or not at all. It will almost certainly
change my thoughts. There are also medical problems such as infection or
damage to the nerves. However, I am a scientist and I believe in what I´m
doing. If I got to the age of 70 and knew I´d had this wonderful
opportunity but had copped out, I wouldn´t be able to live with myself."

In a similar experiment in 1998, a tracking chip was inserted into Prof
Warwick´s arm for nine days. The computer monitoring the chip was able to
open doors and switch on lights in rooms he was entering.

See http://philologos.org/bpr for additional info.

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - OK, who wants to go first ?...
From: bpr-list@philologos.org("Shophar_Sho_Good")
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 15:15:34 -0500

Dreaming Distant Voyages

by Robert Matthews
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/future-00d.html

St Petersburg - April 14, 2000 - Fasten your seatbelts and
hold on tight--intergalactic space travel is back on the
agenda.

Sceptics who dismiss the idea of faster-than-light travel
through "wormholes" in space may have to think again,
because new calculations based on Einstein's general theory
of relativity suggest that wormholes large and stable
enough to allow intergalactic travel really can exist.

The possibility that the cosmos is peppered with short
cuts through space and time has intrigued people ever since
1915 when German theorist Ludwig Flamm found hints of their
existence in Einstein's equations.

While attempts to unify the fundamental forces of nature
suggest that tiny quantum wormholes may exist, most experts
suspect that some fundamental law of physics prevents the
formation of large wormholes--not least because these would
theoretically allow time travellers to go back in time and,
say, prevent their own birth by accidentally killing one of
their parents.

Now a Russian theorist has found a new type of wormhole
that is compatible with the known laws of physics, yet can
be as big and stable as you like. According to Sergei
Krasnikov, a relativity expert at the Pulkovo Observatory
in St Petersburg, the standard arguments against large
wormholes assume that they all have the same basic shape,
and need to be crammed with "exotic matter" to keep them
open (New Scientist, 6 September 1997, p 49).

Such exotic matter has never been seen, but theory
suggests it can be created literally out of nothing when
space and time are curved in the right way.

What Krasnikov has found is a new type of wormhole that
can create its own supply of exotic matter--and in
sufficient quantities to make it big enough and keep it
open long enough for people to use.

"This new wormhole, like every other, needs exotic matter
for it to form, and like some others can produce it by
itself," Krasnikov told New Scientist. "What's new is that
this wormhole actually generates enough to make it
arbitrarily large." Other theorists admit to being
intrigued by the new work, but remain cautious.

"It's worth taking seriously," says Ian Moss, a relativity
expert at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne. "The main
worry is that it could fall down on some technical
detail."

..MORE...

See http://philologos.org/bpr for additional info.

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Tiny Machine Uses DNA to Do Its Work
From: bpr-list@philologos.org("Moza")
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 19:39:17 -0400

Friday April 14 12:41 AM ET

Tiny Machine Uses DNA to Do Its Work

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A tiny machine that can physically bend DNA to
do its work may be just the first member of a whole generation of
microscopic robots, Swiss researchers said on Friday.

They might be used to diagnose medical conditions, read genes or operate
microscopic valves for precise drug delivery, the team at IBM Research in
Zurich and the University of Basel in Switzerland said.

Writing in the journal Science, they said they found that DNA can be used to
bend tiny silicon ``fingers'' that have a thickness of less than one fiftieth of a
human hair.

They rigged up a system of these little cantilevers -- anchored at one end
and free to bend up and down at the other -- and glued single strands of DNA
onto the top.

DNA naturally forms a double helix like a twisted ladder, and when cut apart
will naturally try to put itself back together again.

When the researchers put their cantilevers into a solution with the missing
halves of the DNA strands, the pairs zipped themselves together and the
little cantilevers bent under the force.

The movement could be used to see genetic variations in the DNA, such as
a mutation, but could also itself be harnessed to do work, the researchers
said.

``This biomechanical technique has the potential to enable fast and cheap
biochemical analysis, and could be used for mobile applications,'' Christoph
Gerber of IBM Research, who led the study, said in a statement.

He said the same technology could look for active proteins being produced
by cells, including those the body produces during disease or after an injury
such as a heart attack.

James Gimzewski of IBM Research said the experiment showed that the
unique properties of DNA could be put to work in tiny robots.

``We have found a way to get DNA to do the work for us, so we don't need
batteries, motors, or the like to operate tiny machines,'' he said.

Such a little device might be used to open a valve, perhaps to deliver drugs in
precise doses right where they are needed in the body.

``For instance, we can envision a system to attack cancerous growth -- the
release of just the proper doses of chemicals in the appropriate location of
the body could be achieved using tiny microcapsules equipped with nano-
valves,'' Gimzewski said.

``They could be programmed chemically to open only when they get
biochemical signals from a targeted tumor type. This would enable the right
therapy at the right place at the right time, with minimized side effects and
no invasive surgery.'

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000414/sc/science_nanomachine_1.html

See http://philologos.org/bpr for additional info.

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Arutz-7 News items
From: bpr-list@philologos.org("Moza")
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 19:39:17 -0400

FLYING THE FRIENDLY SKIES

Yediot Acharonot reports today that Prime Minister Ehud Barak's plane - en
route to Cairo this past week - was forced to take an alternate, longer
path over the Mediterranean Sea after the chief Egyptian air traffic
controller forbade Barak's jet to fly over the Sinai Desert. Efforts by
the Egyptian ambassador to Israel Muhammed Basyouni to have the decision
reversed proved unsuccessful.

AMBITIOUS OLYMPIC BID

Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai and Israeli International Olympic Committee
representatives have announced that the Tel Aviv Municipality will submit a
bid to host the 2012 Olympic Games. According to business correspondent
Seth Vogelman, a survey will be conducted over the next two years to
determine the feasibility of the proposal. Mayor Huldai's plan has already
received the approval of Prime Minister Barak and Finance Minister Shochat.
The Olympic project could cost over $10 billion, expenses that would have to
be partially borne by the government. The International Olympic Committee
is slated to issue its decision on the matter in 2005.

ARAFAT BREATHES SIGH OF RELIEF

German prosecutors have decided not to open a formal investigation of
Yasser Arafat regarding his ties to the 1972 massacre of Israeli athletes at
the Munich Olympic games. The Associated Press reports that federal
German prosecutors began checking some time ago "to determine if Arafat
had links to the attack" following the publication of terrorist Abu Daoud's
book associating Arafat with the massacre. "German national interests and
fear of endangering the ongoing Middle East peace process" were cited as
the reason for not pursuing the investigation of Arafat.

Arutz Sheva News Service
<http://www.ArutzSheva.org>
Friday, April 14, 2000 / Nissan 9, 5760

See http://philologos.org/bpr for additional info.

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - (Fwd) Iran/Iraq/Syria/United States
From: bpr-list@philologos.org("Moza")
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 19:39:17 -0400

----- Original Message -----
From: <alert@stratfor.com
To: <redalert@stratfor.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 10:34 PM
Subject: Iran/Iraq/Syria/United States

STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 13 April 2000

By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source of International News &
Analysis http://www.stratfor.com/
__________________________________________

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Stratfor Intelligence Services http://www.stratfor.com/services/

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Have you visited our web site recently? We've made some new changes
that make using the site more efficient, allowing greater access to
thousands of reports. Visit http://www.stratfor.com today.

Russia's Dwindling Population Ensures Rigid Foreign Policy
http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0004130155.htm

Threat of Russian Air Strikes in Afghanistan
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0004130241.htm
__________________________________________

STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
13 April 2000

Iraqi Oil Smuggling and the U.S. Dilemma

SUMMARY

Iran detained 10 tankers April 11 that allegedly carried illegal
Iraqi oil through the Persian Gulf. It appears that, for the time
being, Iran is serious about interdicting Iraqi oil exports, and
this will force Baghdad to exploit alternative routes. An oil
pipeline running from Kirkuk, Iraq, to Syria's Mediterranean port
Banias is the most effective, reasonable alternative. If Syria
cooperates, the United States will face a serious dilemma as it
tries to improve relations with Iran, contain Iraq and secure a
peace deal between Israel and Syria. Washington can respond to
Iran's overture or continue to cajole Syria into concluding a
formal peace deal.

ANALYSIS

The naval arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) has
detained 10 tankers carrying a total of 45,000 tons of smuggled
Iraqi oil, reported Reuters. This report - the third in a week -
clearly confirms that Tehran has begun enforcing U.N. sanctions
against Baghdad in an attempt to curb Iraqi oil smuggling. Iran's
crackdown is an extension of its disagreement with OPEC over the
cartel's recent decision to increase oil production.

Iran argued against the amount of OPEC's production increase, so to
maintain higher prices Iran is now attempting to cut Iraqi output
by deterring smuggling. In doing so, Tehran has set up a situation
in which the United States cannot help but be an unwitting partner.
Iraq is unable to retaliate with force, because the United States
would be obligated to stop Iraqi aggression. Washington must decide
how to reciprocate the Iranian gesture - if at all. The dilemma
will arise when Iraq seeks other oil smuggling routes.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, on Oct. 4,
1999, the U.N. Security Council raised to $8.3 billion the cap on
how much revenue Iraq can earn under the U.N. oil-for-food program.
With oil prices currently around $22-$23, Iraq is able to export
about 2 million barrels per day (bpd). However, Iraq has managed to
smuggle an additional 200,000-400,000 bpd of oil out of the
country.

Until recently, Iran has reportedly facilitated Iraq's oil
smuggling. Ships loaded Iraqi oil from a terminal on the Shatt al-
Arab, a waterway leading from Iraq to the Persian Gulf. Once at
sea, the smugglers met Iranian patrol boats, mostly manned by the
IRGC navy. By paying the IRGC $50 per metric ton of oil, smugglers
received forged paperwork asserting that the oil originated in Iran
and providing safe passage through Iranian territorial waters,
extending to the Straits of Hormuz - the mouth of the gulf. The
U.S.-led Maritime Interdiction Force, charged with preventing Iraqi
oil smuggling, cannot enter Iranian waters to enforce the sanctions
against Iraq.

Iranian cooperation has come to an abrupt halt with the
interdiction of 12 tankers in three days. The administration of
Kish, Iran's resort island and free-trade zone, has even lodged a
complaint in the courts against "foreign oil tankers," which it
blames for a large oil slick threatening the environment off the
southeast coast of the island, reported Iran's official news agency
April 12. Iran's shift in policy does not appear to be a temporary
development.

The gulf smuggling scheme was by far the most lucrative of Iraq's
smuggling routes. Iraq has an oil pipeline from Kirkuk, Iraq, to
Ceyhan, Turkey, that is currently capable of transporting about
900,000 bpd and is running at near full capacity. The oil-for-food
program closely regulates output from this pipeline. However, truck
tankers smuggle oil from Iraq to Turkey. According to the U.S.
Energy Information Administration, Iraq also smuggles oil to Iran
across the Fao Peninsula with barges. There have even been reports
that Iraq smuggles oil by truck to the Mediterranean via Syria and
Lebanon.

None of Iraq's existing truck or barge smuggling routes is capable
of moving the 200,000-400,000 bpd of oil that has been smuggled out
of the gulf every day. However, there is an oil pipeline from
Kirkuk, Iraq, to Syria's Mediterranean port Banias that has been
shut off and in need of repair since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
According to Iraq's deputy oil minister, the pipeline was repaired
in March and is capable of transporting about 300,000-350,000 bpd.
Syria reportedly agreed in February 1999 to reopen the pipeline,
but Iraq will need U.N. approval to start legally exporting oil via
Syria.

This pipeline could become a viable alternative for oil smuggling.
Syria could collect some badly needed cash from Iraq by
reactivating the pipeline. This would create a significant dilemma
for U.S. policy. Washington wants to contain Baghdad and can use
diplomacy or force to ensure oil is not smuggled via the pipeline.
Iran's behavior - whether intended or not - can be interpreted by
Washington as an overture. Now the United States can take the
opportunity to make an overture of its own. The U.S. overture might
come in the form of disabling the pipeline to Syria, Iran's
erstwhile ally. Washington could respond to Iran's tacit overture
while curbing Iraqi oil smuggling.

Disabling the pipeline within Iraq would take Syria out of the
equation. Such a move would not be unprecedented. During the Desert
Fox air strikes, U.S. warplanes bombed an Iraqi pipeline leading to
the gulf that was used primarily for oil smuggling. Also, in
February 1999, U.S. forces bombed a pumping station along the
crucial Iraq-Turkey pipeline. According to Pentagon officials, the
actual target was a radio relay station located along the pipeline
that had a dual-use as an Iraqi military communications facility.

Unfortunately, disabling the pipeline will provoke increased Syrian
intransigence on the U.S.-propelled Israeli-Syrian peace process.
However, should diplomacy be chosen over military action, the
United States would find it costly to provide incentive for
cooperating with Israel while attempting to dissuade Syria from
cooperating with Iraq. The pipeline would become a political lever
for Syria, and Washington would have to ante up something else to
counter it.

Ultimately, Syria is likely to cooperate with Iraq. Damascus will
gain a viable source of income and leverage over the United States.
But, Syria's cooperation with Iraq will further disconcert Iran,
which is trying to curb oil smuggling to maintain high prices.
Syria is already at odds with Iran over Lebanon and the peace
process with Israel. But, Syria is also an old ally of Iran, and
the two maintain an open dialogue. That relationship paves the way
for Tehran to collaborate with Washington on convincing Damascus to
keep the pipeline closed.

(c) 2000 WNI, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/

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