To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Weekend News Today items (9/28/99)
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 08:58:07 +0000

From: "Moza" <research-bpr@philologos.org>

Meteors will fall on the Arab states starting on November 15

Weekend News Today
By Andra Brack
Source: ArabicNews

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries as well
as North Africa will witness in mid-November the natural phenomenon
known as the El-Asadeyat meteors, which occurs only once every 23
years. Jordanian astronomy organizations said in a statement issued
yesterday that Jordan, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe will
be the best areas in the world to witness the phenomenon of the
meteors shower that will start on November 15 and last for three days.
The statement added that the meteors falling will be in shape of small
balls of white snow and that the meteors will be clearly seen in the
early hours of dawn as they will fall at a rate of 100,000 meteors per
hour, adding that the event will not have a negative effect on the
inhabitants.

No violence at Third Temple stone-laying

Weekend News Today
By Andra Brack
Source: Ha'aretz

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- A heavy police guard quashed fears of clashes
yesterday as a cornerstone was attempted to be laid for the Third
Temple. Following the High Court of Justice's rejection of a request
by the Temple Mount Faithful organization to enter the Dome of the
Rock area, Jerusalem police commander Major General Yair Yitzhaki,
ruled that the group could carry out their annual ceremony on the
fifth step at the Dung Gate. This year, unlike previous years, there
were no clashes with Orthodox Jews who arrived for the traditional
Cohens' blessing. Members of the Temple Mount Faithful were joined by
Christians in their festivities and blowing of the Shofar.

Russia's Lebed says bombing attacks are covert government operation to
cancel elections

Weekend News Today
By Kelly Pagatpatan
Source: Reuters

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- Russian former general Alexander Lebed has
suggested the bombing of Chechnya and bomb attacks on apartment blocks
in Moscow could be part of a covert government bid to destabilise
Russia and cancel forthcoming elections. Lebed, a possible contender
to succeed President Boris Yeltsin next year, told French daily Le
Figaro in an interview released ahead of publication on Wednesday that
the current bombing of breakaway Chechnya was either stupid or a
sinister bid to destabilise Russia. "I am tempted to pick the
latter...It looks like a wide-ranging attempt at destabilisation," he
said. Lebed, who won a peace deal to end Russia's disastrous war in
Chechnya three years ago, said the bombs were bound to unite the
Chechen people as they were killing civilians but missing rebels
Moscow accuses of acts of violence in Russia. "Therefore, once again,
we will have to face a whole people. If you wage total war, any people
will rise up to fight round the clock," he said. Lebed said he might
be called on again to end the war. Lebed said he was "almost
convinced" that the government was behind bomb attacks which have
killed almost 300 people in Moscow and other Russian cities. Russian
officials have blamed the blasts on Chechen warlords. He said Chechen
rebels would target military or interior ministry buildings, arms
dumps or nuclear plants rather than civilian apartment blocks. "The
president and 'the family' are isolated. They lack any political
strength to win the elections. Faced with a desperate situation, the
government can have only one aim: destabilise, so that there will be
no elections," he said. In Russian politics, "the family" means an
inner circle of Yeltsin supporters. Asked what the rulers were
prepared to do to retain power, he said: "Anything in order to stay in
power. Anything goes." Elections to the State Duma lower house are
scheduled on December 19, and a presidential election is due next
year.

Low Kinneret could harm water quality

Weekend News Today
By Andra Brack
Source: Ha'aretz

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- Experts are warning of a deterioration in water
quality if the Kinneret water level drops below its danger line over
the next few days. According to a forecast by the Mekorot Water
Company, the water level is expected to drop 10 centimeters below the
bottom red line by November. Some scientists view this as having
catastrophic implications, while others believe low water levels to
have no significant effect on the quality of water. Over the last few
days, Mekorot has been piping only 250,000 cubic meters of water a day
instead of the usual 1.5 million. This is the minimum quantity
required by towns in northern Israel which have no other water
sources. Current water levels may decrease pressure on salty springs
at the bottom of the Kinneret, thus increasing salinization. The
reduced water level is also liable to expose the natural habitat of
fish and plants and may put such species at risk. Some of the plants
and animals play an important role in maintaining the quality of the
water. Special importance is being attached to the water level after
the discovery, five years ago, of toxic algae growing in the lake.
Experts are not sure whether the dropping water levels will speed up
this growth. Some specialists maintain that the water level can be
reduced even further to meet Israel's water requirements, without any
damage being caused to the quality of the water. These specialists
emphasize that the bottom red line was not based on scientific
research but only on estimates. Salinity levels have not increased
over the last 30 years even when water levels were down. Moreover, a
report published several months ago by a committee set up by Mekorot
and the State Water Commission, indicates that the condition of the
water is unchanged compared to previous years.

Congress holds back on Wye aid

Weekend News Today
By Andra Brack
Source: Arutz7

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- The aid promised by the US to Israel - as well as
to the Palestinian Authority and Jordan - for the implementation of
the Wye Agreement will not be forthcoming anytime soon. The US
Congress passed a foreign aid bill last night that includes none of
the funds promised by Clinton a year ago during the Wye plantation
talks. President Clinton is likely to veto the bill, but lawmakers
claim they are not sure from where the money for the Wye Agreement
will come. Interestingly, the Clinton administration increased its
estimate yesterday of the budget surplus, saying it should hit at
least $115 billion in fiscal 1999, the largest in American history.
American-Jewish groups have demanded that the promised money be
provided, as Israel in particular will face tremendous expenses in
carrying out the Wye Agreement. Moving each of several army bases that
Israel has undertaken to relocate, for instance, will cost
approximately $100 million. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright, too, asked American-Jewish leaders to "use their influence"
to ensure that Congress approves the Wye Agreement monies.

They are back! Tuberculosis, cholera, dengue threatening Americans

Weekend News Today
By Staff Writer
Source: Yahoo!

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- Tuberculosis, cholera, dengue - they're back,
threatening millions of people in the Americas, AP reported.
"Drug-resistant strains of microbes are having a deadly impact on the
fight against tuberculosis, malaria, cholera, diarrhea and pneumonia
(which) together kill more than 10 million people worldwide each
year," said Dr. George A. O. Alleyne, director-general of the Pan
American Health Organization. Alleyne spoke Monday at the start of a
five-day conference in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where some 30 health
ministers from 35 member states are expected today to consider
proposals on combating tobacco consumption in the Americas. In a
120-page report Monday, Alleyne described the surprising reemergence
of diseases like dengue - the highly debilitating and untreatable
disease some call ``breakbone fever'' - that infected 770,000 people
in the Americas last year and killed about 100. Tuberculosis,
affecting 400,000 a year in the region, was another concern, ``killing
137 people every day.'' Other diseases identified as reemerging in the
last decade: Cholera, reintroduced to Central and South America
following an absence of almost a century. Bubonic plague, which has
returned to Peru since 1992. Hantavirus, a rat-borne disease that was
discovered again in the U.S. state of New Mexico. Drug-resistant
malaria has infected a great swath of the Amazon region, attacking
entire villages in Guyana.

President Ezer Weizman nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Weekend News Today
By Andra Brack
Source: IsraelWire

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- President Ezer Weizman is among the nominees for
the Nobel Peace Prize by former recipients of the prize according to a
Jerusalem Post report. Recommendations have been submitted on his
behalf by such laureates as former UN Secretary-General Boutros
Boutros-Ghali, Yassir Arafat, South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu
and former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. In his letter of
recommendation, Arafat wrote that Weizman "was one of the pioneer
brave Israelis who persisted in acting for direct negotiations between
the government of Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization,"
and that during his term in office Weizman "continued to act
tirelessly to break down the walls of enmity between Israel and its
neighbors and to widen the circles of peace and coexistence in the
Middle East."

World's foremost secular humanists call for world government

Weekend News Today
By Staff Writer
Source: Religion Today (9/23/99)

Tue Sep 28,1999 -- The world's foremost secular humanists are calling
for a world government. The International Academy of Humanism's
Humanist Manifesto 2000, signed by more than 100 academics and
intellectuals, calls for the formation of a World Parliament to
regulate environmental, economic, and population concerns, Religion
News Service said. It is the fifth such declaration issued by
humanists since 1933. The World Parliament should have more power than
the United Nations, the group said. National boundaries and cultural
and religious differences should slowly be eliminated, it said. New
agencies are needed to oversee and regulate worldwide environmental
conditions, transnational taxation to distribute more money to poorer
nations, and population control, it said. The document criticizes
religious beliefs. "Theological moral doctrines often reflect
inherited, prescientific conceptions of nature and human nature," and
are outdated, it said. "We do not deny that religionists have done
much good; what we deny is that religious piety is the sole guarantee
of moral virtue." Document signers include philosopher Paul Kurtz,
entertainer Steve Allen, anthropologist Paul Leakey, former California
Sen. Alan Cranston, and nine Nobel laureates.

via: bible_prophecy-news@onelist.com

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Russia Today items (9/29/99)
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 09:04:08 +0000

From: "Moza" <research-bpr@philologos.org>

U.S., RUSSIA WORKING ON Y2K GLITCHES
WASHINGTON -- The United States and Russia have found potential Year
2000 glitches in all but one of seven Cold War-era "hotlines" and are
rushing to correct them, a top Pentagon official told Congress on
Tuesday. http://www.russiatoday.com/news.php3?id=95402&text

NEW Mir's Demise (http://www.russiatoday.com/features.php3?id=95465)
Leads To Next Generation Space Station

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - You're nobody without your national ID card!
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 09:11:55 +0000

From: "Moza" <research-bpr@philologos.org>

From http://www.enterstageright.com/1099id.htm
-
You're nobody without your national ID card!

By Tom DeWeese
web posted September 27, 1999

It's the year 2001 and you've dashed to the airport trying to catch a
flight to deal with a family emergency. You're ready to buy a ticket
when you're asked to produce your federally issued national
identification card. You've left it at home. Sorry, you can't get on
board any flight without it.

It's the year 2001 and you've applied for a new job. Human Resources
tells you they cannot consider your resume because it does not list
your national identification number and asks to see your card.

It's the year 2001 and you've just moved your family to a new State
and want to get a driver's license. Without your national
identification card, they will not issue it. Then you discover that,
to get your new license, you will also have to provide fingerprints
and a voice recognition recording that will be entered into a federal
registry so you can be identified no matterwhere you are in the
nation.

It's the year 2001 and crime is up in your neighborhood. You decide to
purchase a handgun to protect yourself in your home or apartment. The
local police will not issue the documentation required without seeing
your national identification card, nor will be able to purchase a
weapon without it.

It's the year 2001. You want to open a new bank account. Without your
national identification card, the bank will not do business with you.
When you show them your card, they ask you to sign a document
permitting them to make any information about your banking activities
available to any agency of the federal or state government that
requests it.

Hastert
If this sounds like something out of a really scary novel about the
way the federal government is tracking everyone in the nation from
birth to death, the bad news is that it is not fiction. It will be
fact if the Republican-led House of Representatives does not act soon
to stop the implementation of a "Big Brother" national identification
system. The man who can resolve and end the threat of this invasion of
everyone's privacy is Dennis Hastert, the Speaker of the House.

When Americans beat back the government takeover of the nation's
health system, they thought they had protected the privacy they assume
applies to their personal medical records. When they protested the
proposed "Know Your Customer" banking laws that would have established
massive federal data bank profiles of every bank customer, they
thought their personal banking activities were again private matters.

The national identification card, the instrument of every despotic
government in the world, will become a reality unless Speaker Hastert
hears from enough Americans who don't want the Fourth Amendment of the
Constitution rendered meaningless. "The right of the people to be
secure in their persons, papers, and effects, against unreasonable
searches and seizures" will cease. A national identification card will
make us the slaves of a central government where faceless bureaucrats
can pry into every aspect of our lives and thwart every action we
take.

Tom DeWeese is the president of the American Policy Center, Herdon,
Virginia, a grass roots, activist think tank. It maintains an Internet
site at www.americanpolicy.org.

c 1999, Enter Stage Right and/or its creators. All rights reserved.

via: isml@onelist.com

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Israeli Greens ask Pope to join Galilee rain prayer
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 10:04:01 -0500

From: <owner-bpr@philologos.org>

9/29/1999 09:28:00 ET

Israeli Greens ask Pope to join Galilee rain prayer

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel's Green movement has asked the Pope
to join a human ring around the biblical Sea of Galilee and pray for rain
when he visits the drought-plagued Holy Land for the millennium, a
newspaper said on Wednesday.

The Maariv daily said the Greens planned to gather more than 60,000
people from around the world to encircle the Galilee lake, Israel's
largest reservoir, to seek divine intervention for peace -- and
precipitation.

Last week, Pope John Paul II confirmed he plans to travel to the region
to take part in millennium celebrations. He is expected to visit holy
sites in Jerusalem, Bethlehem and Nazareth in March 2000.

via: hblonde1@tampabay.rr.com

--- BPR

BPR Web Site - http://philologos.org/bpr

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Christian pilgrims seeking apocalypse alarm some Israelis
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 10:35:50 -0500

From: owner-bpr@philologos.org

September 28, 1999
From staff and wire reports

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- While the approach of the year 2000 is
drawing Christian pilgrims from across the world to visit
Biblical holy lands in Israel and the West Bank, bringing much-
anticipated tourism revenue to the region, it has also drawn
visitors the Israeli hosts prefer would stay home -- those who
hope to witness the end of the world.

Among the crowds of Christians traveling to the Middle East
ahead of the new year, a minority of fundamentalist followers
are bringing with them visions of a second coming of Jesus -- an
event that, according to New Testament prophesy, signifies the
apocalypse.

"We're waiting daily for the Messiah to return," says one
Christian woman.

"There will be an apocalypse somewhere in the Middle East.
There will be an Armageddon," says another.

That kind of talk alarms some Israelis, who as Jews don't share
a hope for the return of the Christian savior and are concerned
that radical Christians might destroy religious sites holy to
Jews and Muslims in Jerusalem, setting off bloodshed in the
disputed city.

When a group of Zionist Christians converged this week in
Israel for an annual festival, some militant Jews greeted them
with shouts of "Danger! Danger, Missionaries!" and "Jesus is
dead!"

"The implicit message of the (Christian) apocalyptic scenario
is that we're the target, that world war is going to happen
here, according to the fundamentalist agenda," said Yossi Klein-
Halevy, of the Jerusalem Report.

The umbrella group that sponsored this week's Christian
gathering, the International Christian Embassy, urged Israelis
to welcome millennium pilgrims, saying that while "the Christian
Embassy shares with many others a firm belief in the 'coming of
the Lord,' ... the vast majority of Christians do not take
seriously anyone who may be seeing with certainty either 2000 or
2001 as the date for Christ's return."

3 million tourists expected

Israel's Tourism Ministry predicts more than 3 million tourists
will visit Israel and the West Bank during 2000 and 2001 to mark
the start of Christianity's third millennium.

Police have set up a special task force to deal with members of
messianic sects they fear may try to use violence to realize
their apocalyptic visions of the end of the world.

Earlier this year, Israeli authorities deported several members
of a Christian doomsday cult based in Denver..

'Peaceful intentions'

The Christian Embassy supported Israel's "right and duty to
take all reasonable precautions and make informed assessments of
any potential security risks on an individual basis."

However, the group said, "Israelis and others need to look past
the dissemination of negative images and recognize these
pilgrims are coming with peaceful intentions."

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak broke with his predecessors
and turned down an invitation to address the group, which was a
fervent backer of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Some see it as ironic that many Jews have shunned the Christian
groups, since the visitors are among Israel's staunchest
supporters. Some Christians view the existence of the state of
Israel as a precursor to the 'second coming.'

Though the current government snubbed them, the group's leader
says their political support may be sought again, especially as
Palestinians demand a share of Jerusalem in final peace
negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

"The days might come when they will need the support of the
Christian world on some of these issues," said International
Christian Embassy Executive Director Johannes Luckhoff.

Jerusalem Bureau Chief Walter Rodgers and Reuters contributed
to this report.

http://cnn.com/WORLD/meast/9909/28/israel.christian.march/

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Jubilee executions in China
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 10:38:40 -0500

From: owner-bpr@philologos.org

Jubilee executions planned
From OLIVER AUGUST of The Times in Beijing
29sep99

CHINA is planning to execute hundreds of prisoners ahead of its
50th anniversary celebrations on Friday.

Police insist that the prisoners are not dissidents, saying
that the mass executions are part of a crackdown on crime.

The biggest mass execution will be held in the southern
province of Guangdong, where 238 prisoners will be killed by the
end of this week.

The Southern Daily newspaper reported that Guangdong's Supreme
People's Court would announce rulings regarding 818 convicted
criminals at 57 public rallies before Friday.

Other provinces have already held mass executions. In the
central Chinese city of Chongqing, 26 people were executed last
week, according to the Chongqing Daily News.

The paper said that the killings were carried out last
Wednesday as part of the nationwide Strike Hard campaign.

According to Amnesty International, China is responsible for
half of all executions carried out worldwide. Chinese prisoners
sentenced to death are often executed within hours of a court
ruling.

Executions are usually carried out with a single bullet to the
back of the head. In areas where local authorities are
particularly keen to deter criminals, executions are staged in
public squares.

While there is no evidence that dissidents were among the
executed, political activists have been targeted during the
crackdown ahead of the anniversary.

The Chinese leadership is fearful that demonstrations could
disrupt careful plans for anniversary parades and parties. The
authorities rounded up more than 68,000 fugitives between July 1
and August 20, the official Xinhua news agency said.

The climax of China's birthday celebrations will be a chest-
thumping military parade involving about 500,000 people,
hundreds of tanks and missiles.

Political activists and followers of Falun Dafa, the banned
meditation group, were arrested before the celebrations as part
of a national "clean-up".

http://www.news.com.au/news_content/aus/4332288.htm

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Misc. News (9/29/99)
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 13:07:41 -0500

From: research-bpr@philologos.org

NEW STRATEGIC TRIANGLE: RUSSIA, CHINA, AND INDIA
September 28, 1999

The International Herald Tribune reported today: "U.S.
specialists in international affairs are closely monitoring
signs of increased cooperation among Russia, China and India,
along with a growing sense in all three countries, especially
after NATO's bombing campaign against Yugoslavia this spring,
that U.S. power must somehow be checked. Although agreeing that
the three nations are far from coalescing into a Eurasian anti-
NATO axis, the analysts remain concerned about a potentially
grave threat: an alliance that would bring together about 2.5
billion people, formidable military might and a vast stockpile
of nuclear weapons, all held together by the goal of countering
America's global dominance. 'Right now, you have flirting,' said
Charles William Maynes, president of the Eurasia Foundation, a
Washington-based think tank. 'I don't know where this is going
to go. If we play our cards right, it's going to go nowhere.'
But if the relationships progress, Mr. Maynes said, 'then you
basically have the world's heartland - 2 billion people in China
and India - allied with a formidable technological power in
Russia. That would be a disaster for the United States.' They
are already changing the military equation in Asia. The
political desire for closer cooperation is reflected in high-
level rhetoric about the need for greater cooperation, usually
mixed with thinly veiled anti-Western comments or calls for a
'multipolar world' - which means counterbalancing America's
global dominance. During a visit to India in December, Yevgeni
Primakov, then prime minister of Russia, floated the idea of a
'strategic triangle' committing the three nations to a policy of
regional peace and stability..."

MAFIA OF RUSSIA GROWS INTERNATIONALLY
September 28, 1999

USA Today reported: "The number of Russian organized crime
groups that operate both in Europe and the United States is
growing, the Interior Ministry said Monday. About 230 such
groups have come under investigation by Russian anti-organized
crime agencies during the past year, the ministry said. Of
those, 67 are suspected of committing crimes in the U.S.,
Britain and 11 other countries. The ministry's data was reported
by the Interfax news agency. The announcement came amid
allegations that Russians may have laundered billions of dollars
through the Bank of New York. Russian organized crime was the
first to be blamed, but suspicion later shifted largely to
Russian banks and other legitimate businesses."

U.S. WARNS CHINA WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION MEMBERSHIP TIME
RUNNING OUT
September 28, 1999

Agence France Presse reported: "The United States will push
Beijing for more concessions on trade regulations Monday when
bilateral negotiations resume on China's accession to the World
Trade Organization, U.S. officials say. China, which is eager to
join the global trade group, has so far been resistant to all
the concessions Washington has demanded..."

TYPHOON SEASON STORMIEST IN 35 YEARS
September 28, 1999

The South China Morning post reported: "The seventh typhoon of
the year struck yesterday, making it the busiest storm season
for 35 years. Typhoon Cam, which forced the hoisting of the No 8
signal for nine hours, brought little of the damage inflicted by
its predecessor, Typhoon York, although the races were canceled,
transport disrupted and 23 people injured. Cam had wind speeds
of 72km/h compared to 140km/h for York, which killed two people
and injured close to 500 on September 16. Cam was the fifth
storm requiring the No 8 signal this year. The No 9 signal has
been up twice - on June 7, for Maggie, and again for York, which
also needed a No 10. Not since 1964 have there been so many
signals..."

CHINA PRESIDENT TODAY AGAIN THREATENS TAIWAN WITH FORCEFUL
REUNIFICATION
September 27, 1999

CNN reported: "Chinese President Jiang Zemin said Monday that
China wanted 'peaceful unification' with Taiwan, but added that
it would not back down from threats to use force, if necessary,
to bring the island back under Chinese control. Jiang was
speaking to some 800 international business leaders gathered in
Shanghai for the opening of the Fortune Global Forum. In a
speech he also used to tout China's appeal to internationa
countries not to interfere with China's internal issues..."

via: pre-trib-news <pretribnews@listbot.com>

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Statfor Intelligence Report on Syria
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 13:21:27 -0500

From: <owner-bpr@philologos.org>

STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
September 29, 1999

The Stirrings of Struggle in Damascus

Summary:

The apparent failure of Syrian President Hafez Assad's health
may be spawning a power struggle between Assad's son and
brother. The president's brother and disgraced former vice
president, Rifat Assad, is perceived as trying to gain power
while Assad's son, Bashar, is being groomed to take over. It
appears that Syria is headed for a power struggle over the
presidency, which would not only change internal Syrian
politics, but also drastically affect the Syrian-Israeli peace
process.

Analysis:

According to the Israeli and Arab press, Syrian security forces
controlled by Syrian President Hafez Assad's son, Bashar,
recently began a search and arrest campaign against supporters
of Rifat Assad, the president's brother and former vice
president. The Sept. 19 crackdown was triggered by apparent
attempts by Rifat to promote himself and his son, challenging
the expected ascension of Hafez Assad's son and chosen heir,
Bashar. This rivalry may lead to a succession struggle that
could significantly affect domestic politics, as well as the
country's peace process with Israel.

The power struggle between Rifat and Bashar has arisen
alongside reports of President Hafez Assad's growing health
problems. According to the Sept. 24 Jerusalem Post, Arab sources
closely monitoring Syria say the ailing president is
significantly weakened and has not appeared in public for
several days. Also, Syrian television has begun using archival
footage of Assad when referring to him.

While these reports cannot be confirmed, Assad is known to
suffer from heart and other ailments. On July 23, Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Barak told The Jerusalem Post that it was better
to deal with the "old guard," implying that a generational
change could be near and could impede the peace process.

When Assad suffered a heart attack in 1983, Rifat - then vice
president - staged an unsuccessful bid for power, and was exiled
to Europe until 1992. Rifat, still angered by his removal from
the vice presidency, now wants the presidency. Damascus has
perceived recent actions by Rifat and his son as attempts to
gain power, causing deep anger in the Syrian capital. Rifat
showed up at the funeral for the King of Morocco while President
Assad intentionally stayed away. A few days later, Rifat's son
Sumer visited Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in Gaza and
promoted mending ties between Arafat and Assad.

Bashar, a former opthamologist and Assad's chosen successor,
has also made attempts to increase his power, adopting a higher
public profile in Syria and abroad following his accelerated
induction into the military, political, and economic power
centers of Damascus. In an unprecedented show of force, 600 of
Bashar's troops surrounded Rifat's home in Latakia and ordered
Rifat loyalists to give themselves up, threatening them with
accusations of corruption. At last report, Rifat's loyalists,
called "the private militia," were still barricaded inside
Rifat's home.

The ruling Syrian Ba'th Party is due to convene in November.
Assad reportedly plans to announce a change in the makeup of the
government and elevate Bashar to a senior post, while decreasing
Rifat's power.

Rifat is trying to avoid further confrontation to prevent this
from happening. He sent a message to the presidential residence
at the height of the siege saying that he did not instruct his
followers to barricade themselves inside his home. Rifat added
that he was still loyal to Assad and said he had no intention of
harming the stability of the Syrian regime.

If the reports of President Assad's failing health are true and
he does not make it until November, the country will certainly
witness a succession crisis, played out as a power struggle
between Rifat and his loyalists and Bashar and his forces.
However, it wouldn't take the president's death to ignite a
crisis. Bashar is only 35 years old, making him five years too
young to take over the presidency by constitutional standards.
The succession struggle could continue until Bashar reaches his
40th birthday.

While this in and of itself is a significant event, it also has
ramifications for the Syria-Israel peace process. Israeli
officials already see rising tensions along the northern border
with Lebanon as a direct threat to peace talks with Damascus.
Israeli officials have seen a reported increase in Hezbollah
violence as proof that Syrian interest in negotiations is
waning. Syria has sought the return of the Golan Heights from
Israel in negotiations. In exchange, Israel has requested
security guarantees.

If, somehow, Rifat gains a significant amount of power in the
succession, Syrian-Israeli relations will not progress as they
would under Bashar. Rifat is more anti-Israel than Assad and has
in the past supported Islamic extremists. Bashar tends to align
himself with his father. When interviewed by the Arab daily al-
Wasat, Bashar had no harsh words against Israel, going so far as
to say that if Israeli forces left Southern Lebanon, the
military wing of Hezbollah would wither.

(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.

--- BPR

BPR Web Site - http://philologos.org/bpr

========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Israel Line (9/29/99)
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 18:33:21 +0000

From: "Moza" <research-bpr@philologos.org>

Wednesday, September 29, 1999

* LEVY ADDRESSES UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY
* ANNAN PROMISES TO OPPOSE ANTI-ISRAEL RESOLUTIONS
* ALBRIGHT OPTIMISTIC REGARDING ISRAEL-SYRIA TALKS
* ISRAELI EXHIBIT AT EPCOT OPENS TODAY
* ECONOMIC BRIEFS

LEVY ADDRESSES UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY
   Foreign Minister David Levy addressed the General Assembly of the United
Nations this morning, emphasizing the importance of establishing a
culture of peace that entails the end of boycotts, incitement,
confrontation and defamation, Israel Radio, KOL YISRAEL, reported.
Levy expressed Israel's chagrin at finding itself confronted with a
strident political war in different international fora, including the
podium of the General Assembly. Levy stated, "This dualism is
inconsistent with the peace process, and is intolerable, as are the
extreme decisions taken by the Arab League against Israel, which are
not harmonious with the spirit of peace, as expressed in the Sharm
el-Sheikh Memorandum."
   Levy also called upon the leaders of Syria to commence peace talks,
saying "meetings and discussion are not political sacrifices, they are
basic necessities." Regarding the Lebanese track, Levy also said that
Israel "will not be held hostage [on the Lebanese track] to a stubborn
and defiant attitude for much longer." Levy added that Israel has
never had any territorial claims or disputes with Lebanon, saying,
"Our one and only interest is to guarantee the safety and security of
our citizens."
   Regarding the status of Jerusalem, Levy said, "It is so upsetting that
even today, 51 years since the independence of the State of Israel,
there are still those who would deny our natural right to decide the
location of our capital, a natural right given to every nation in the
world." He concluded: "United Jerusalem, under the sovereignty of
Israel, remains and will remain forever the capital of the State of
Israel."

ANNAN PROMISES TO OPPOSE ANTI-ISRAEL RESOLUTIONS
   United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said he wants to see an end
to anti-Israel resolutions as the Middle East peace process forges
ahead, HA'ARETZ reported. Foreign Minister David Levy said, "[Annan]
accepted Israel's position that as the peace process moves forward,
anti-Israeli resolutions in this building cannot be allowed," adding
that he and Annan "agreed that the peace process must continue
directly between the sides involved."
   Levy said that he and Annan also discussed activity for the acceptance of
Israel into the Western European and Others regional group, "which the
Secretary-General supports." Israel is currently not a member of any
regional group in the UN.
   Also concerning Levy's actions at the UN General Assembly, Israel Radio,
KOL YISRAEL, reported that during a meeting with Levy on Tuesday,
Omani Foreign Minister Yousef Bin Alawabin Abdullah offered to host
multilateral talks on water issues.

ALBRIGHT OPTIMISTIC REGARDING ISRAEL-SYRIA TALKS
   United States Secretary of State Madeleine Albright expressed optimism on
Tuesday regarding prospects for negotiations between Israel and Syria,
MA'ARIV reported. Appearing in New York before the Conference of
Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, Albright said that
both she and U.S. President Bill Clinton will remain active on the
Israel-Syria peace track. She added that both sides expressed a
genuine will to continue with the peace process, and that "each treats
the other with utmost respect and confidence."
 YEDIOT AHARONOT quoted a senior Israeli official as saying that Syria has
toughened its stance in recent days and extended its territorial claim
over the Golan Heights, effectively causing a stalemate in talks
intended to renew negotiations.
  Syrian demands now include territories belonging to Israel according to
international rule, including part of the waterline in the Sea of
Galilee. Sources in Israel said this claim has not been raised for a
long time, and it was assumed that Syrian President Hafez Assad would
not re-assert this position.
   According to HA'ARETZ, Albright criticized Palestinian Authority Chairman
Yasser Arafat's speech to the United Nations last week. Malcolm
Hoenlein, Executive Vice President of the Conference of Presidents,
also expressed disappointment over Arafat's call for the Palestinian
right of return, and criticized recent attempts by the Arab League to
"resurrect" the boycott era.

ISRAELI EXHIBIT AT EPCOT OPENS TODAY
   The Israeli pavilion at Disney's Epcot Center will open today, Israel
Radio, KOL YISRAEL, reported. Foreign Ministry Director-General Eitan
Ben-Tsur said, "I believe that Jerusalem will be represented [in the
exhibit] as the capital of Israel in every way, and will be portrayed
according to its spiritual richness within the context of an open
city, open to all faiths. It is a shame that on the 51st anniversary
of the establishment of the State of Israel, there are those trying to
undermine Jerusalem in a theme park."
   Ben-Tsur added that senior sources at Disney, including Disney Chairman
Michael Eisner himself, said that they have experienced pressure from
the Arab League. Ben-Tsur expressed hope that Disney would continue to
stand up to Arab pressure in the future.

Approximately 95,000 people from home and abroad attended the annual
Jerusalem March on Tuesday, THE JERUSALEM POST reported.

ECONOMIC BRIEFS
* Israeli pharmaceutical company Proneuron Biotechnology received
approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration to begin
clinical trials of an autologous macrophage therapy it has developed
by the treatment of paralysis, HA'ARETZ reported. The treatment is
only appropriate in early stages of the condition and is not be used
once the condition has reached an advanced stage.

* During a lecture given to the World Bank in Washington, Finance
Minister Avraham Shochat said that the peace process would bring
economic prosperity to the region, GLOBES reported. Shochat expressed
hope that despite a pause on the multilateral track, economic regional
cooperation will soon renew.

* Chase Manhattan Corporation, the second-largest United States bank,
will conduct its investment banking activities in Israel through local
investment house Tamir-Fishman & Co., THE JERUSALEM POST reported.

Today's Israel Line was prepared by Soriya Kowalsky at The Consulate
General of Israel in New York.

Israel Line is a daily summary of major news items taken directly from
the Israeli media.
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========
To: bpr-list@philologos.org (BPR Mailing List)
Subject: [BPR] - Iraqi oil and Y2K
From: bpr-list@philologos.org(BPR)
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 1999 18:36:46 +0000

From: "Moza" <research-bpr@philologos.org>

Y2K: Iraq decides to wait and see on Y2K oil disruption
http://CNN.com/TECH/computing/9909/29/energy.iraq.y2k.reut/

Iraq's oil industry is not prepared to deal with the
millennium bug and may well be forced to shut down
production and exports at the turn of the year, a reliable
industry source in Baghdad said on Wednesday.

via: computing@CNN.COM